Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 16, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his signing time?
Markets
25 words · 16 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Save Act / Save America Act | Yes | 66%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 64%n=141 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 60%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 58%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Yes | 56%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 56%n=203 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 54%n=126 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 53%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Marco / Rubio | Yes | 46%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 44%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 43%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | 40%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 36%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 33%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 21%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 59%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 52%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 50%n=170 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 44%n=112 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 42%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Sanctuary | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 31%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 17%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=306 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPRESMENTION-DJT26MAR16 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP