Donald Trump: Interview, Feb 18, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say in his interview with Sean Hannity?
Polymarket What will Trump/Elon say during Hannity interview?
Markets
34 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trans/Transgender | Yes | 59%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 55%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 53%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Elon/Musk | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| COVID | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| California | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Department of Education | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tesla | Yes | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| DOGE 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kickback | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 5+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DEI | Yes | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Israel | No | 56%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Vladimir/Putin | No | 53%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| TikTok | No | 52%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Saudi Arabia | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Chuck/Schumer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Clinton | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fort Knox | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Karoline/Leavitt | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nancy/Pelosi | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NATO | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Palestine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Paper Straw | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Texas | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| FEMA | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| China 10+ times | No | 39%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Billion 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| October 7 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fentanyl | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Woke | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI/Artificial Intelligence | No | 31%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 16%n=56 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDJTHANNITY-25FEB18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP