Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 12, 2026
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Women's History Month Event?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Women's History Month event?
Markets
51 words · 18 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 63%n=140 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 59%n=100 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 56%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Olympic / Olympics | Yes | 54%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX / Favored Nation | Yes | 54%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Michelle / Obama | Yes | 53%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| SAVE Act / Save America Act | Yes | 53%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 52%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 51%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Darling / Honey | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 48%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Amelia Earhart | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Movie Star | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Child | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Beautiful 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pam / Bondi | Yes | 38%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Karoline / Leavitt | Yes | 35%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 65%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury / Midnight Hammer | No | 60%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 59%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Where are you | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 56%n=200 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 52%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 51%n=166 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 48%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 47%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Affordable / Affordability | No | 47%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Foster / Fostering | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| State of the Union / State of Union | No | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 43%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Nicki Minaj | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Army / Navy | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Soccer / Football | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Title 9 | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Abort / Abortion | No | 40%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Job 25+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Karoline Leavitt | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Good looking | No | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Title IX / Title 9 | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 37%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Nicki / Minaj | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kristi / Noem | No | 36%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Angel | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| IVF / Fertility | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| IVF | No | 30%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| DEI / Woke | No | 26%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 25%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | No | 17%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=302 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXPRESMENTION-DJT26MAR13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP