Donald Trump: Speech, Feb 22, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at his speech at CPAC?
Polymarket What will Trump say at CPAC conference on Saturday?
Markets
38 words · 18 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Putin | Yes | 61%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 57%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 56%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Elon/Musk | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel | Yes | 51%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| FBI/Federal Bureau of Investigation | Yes | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Zelensky | Yes | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tax | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Gender | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gold | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million 30+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Million 15+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fort Knox | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Vladimir/Putin | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Texas | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Woke | Yes | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Condom | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| IQ | No | 52%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| DOGE | No | 50%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| California | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| TikTok | No | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Dictator | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Egg | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| King | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ronald/Reagan | No | 47%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Tesla | No | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Chuck/Schumer | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Karoline/Leavitt | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| NATO | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Palestine | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Paper Straw | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon 5+ times | No | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Saudi Arabia | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| FEMA | No | 37%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| AI/Artificial Intelligence | No | 33%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 18%n=59 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDJTCPAC-25FEB22 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP