Will “Trump” be said on The Last Word next time?

As of Oct 26, 2026, “Trump” was said on The Last Word in 28 of 38 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 13, 2026 (74%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=38, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 22, 2026), 2 name the market's speakers, and it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2 of them.

56%from settlement history only · n=38counts: named speaker only
Last 10
7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes no no yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 4 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=trump

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell

Trump

Probability
56% · n=38
Settled
28/38 (74%)
Last 8 episodes
said in 2 of 2 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Josh Turek say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Raphael Warnock say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Josh Turek say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Cory Booker say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 2 times (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: named speaker only

2 counted; 71 by speakers the rule does not count.

Cory Bookerguest43:45In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Cory Bookerguest53:38In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Every match in the transcript

What will Sherrod Brown say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · said 1 time (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: named speaker only

1 counted; 106 by speakers the rule does not count.

Sherrod Brownguest33:28In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

advertisementother22:45In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.

Every match in the transcript

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 39 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 5, 2026TrumpKalshiYes2
Oct 1, 2026TrumpKalshiYes1
Aug 27, 2026TrumpKalshiYes2
Aug 18, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Jul 29, 2026TrumpKalshiNo–
Jul 7, 2026TrumpKalshiNo–
Jun 30, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Jun 18, 2026TrumpKalshiNo–
Jun 17, 2026TrumpKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Jun 9, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Jun 5, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
May 28, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
May 26, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
May 20, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
May 14, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
May 12, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Apr 14, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Apr 7, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Apr 6, 2026TrumpKalshiNo–
Apr 2, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Mar 31, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Mar 25, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Mar 24, 2026TrumpKalshiNo–
Mar 19, 2026TrumpKalshiNo–
Mar 6, 2026TrumpKalshiNo–
Mar 5, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Feb 27, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Feb 26, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Feb 24, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Feb 17, 2026TrumpKalshiNo–
Feb 14, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Feb 13, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Feb 11, 2026TrumpKalshiNo–
Feb 10, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Feb 6, 2026TrumpKalshiNo–
Feb 5, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Feb 3, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Jan 30, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Jan 13, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–

Questions

How often is “Trump” said on The Last Word?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Trump” was said on The Last Word in 28 of 38 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 13, 2026 (74%), most recently on Oct 5, 2026.
What is the probability “Trump” is said on The Last Word next time?
56%, from settlement history (n=38). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “The Last Word: ‘Trump’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-last-word/words/trump (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-last-word&word=trump · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-last-word&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP