The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Apr 14, 2026
Kalshi What will Mark Warner say during The Last Word?
Markets
12 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 57%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 35%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pope | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 19%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Democracy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election | No | 21%n=8 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26APR14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP