The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Jun 9, 2026
Kalshi What will Adam Smith say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell?
Markets
11 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 67%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 49%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 45%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | No | 57%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 52%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Democracy | No | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border | No | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 31%n=19 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26JUN09 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP