The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Mar 5, 2026
Kalshi What will Jamie Raskin say during his MS NOW interview?
Markets
11 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 67%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Epstein | Yes | 57%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / Border | Yes | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Yes | 20%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Congress / Congressional | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Noem | No | 31%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Mask / Masked | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26MAR05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP