The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell: Episode, Feb 5, 2026
Kalshi Mention: Mikie Sherrill MSNBC Interview
Markets
12 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Yes | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Home / Housing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Billion | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Commute / Commuter | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| New York | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Freeze / Freezing | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gateway Tunnel | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Utility | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Weaponize / Weaponized | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 25%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLASTWORDMENTION-26FEB05 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP