The Beat with Ari Melber
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 54 word markets on The Beat with Ari Melber since 2026, on 28 different words.
History Wall
1–29 of 29, most settled first| Word | Jun 10episode | Jul 14episode | Aug 25episode | Oct 1latest | Last 4 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Settled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jun 10 episode | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jul 14 episode | 0 times: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Aug 25 episode | 2 times: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 1 episode, counts as said | 2/450% | 2/450% | 52%n=4 from settlement history |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Settled yes: Corrupt / Corruption, Jun 10 episode | Settled yes: Corrupt / Corruption, Jul 14 episode | 0 times: Corrupt / Corruption, Aug 25 episode | 0 times: Corrupt / Corruption, Oct 1 episode | 2/450% | 2/450% | 45%n=4 from settlement history |
| Healthcare | Settled yes: Healthcare, Jun 10 episode | Not listed: Healthcare, Jul 14 episode | 2 times: Healthcare, Aug 25 episode, counts as said | 5 times: Healthcare, Oct 1 episode, counts as said | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | 60%n=3 from settlement history |
| Republican | Settled yes: Republican, Jun 10 episode | Settled yes: Republican, Jul 14 episode | 1 time: Republican, Aug 25 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Republican, Oct 1 episode | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | 56%n=3 from settlement history |
| Trump3+ times | Settled yes: Trump (3+ times), Jun 10 episode | Settled yes: Trump (3+ times), Jul 14 episode | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Aug 25 episode | 12 times: Trump (3+ times), Oct 1 episode, counts as said | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | 58%n=3 from settlement history |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Settled yes: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Jun 10 episode | Settled yes: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Jul 14 episode | 0 times: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Aug 25 episode | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Oct 1 episode | 2/367% | 2/367% | 50%n=3 from settlement history |
| Election | Settled yes: Election, Jun 10 episode | Settled yes: Election, Jul 14 episode | 0 times: Election, Aug 25 episode | Not listed: Election, Oct 1 episode | 2/367% | 2/367% | 50%n=3 from settlement history |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Settled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jun 10 episode | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jul 14 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Aug 25 episode | 3 times: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 1 episode, counts as said | 2/367% | 2/367% | 56%n=3 from settlement history |
| Iran / Iranian | Settled yes: Iran / Iranian, Jun 10 episode | Settled no: Iran / Iranian, Jul 14 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Aug 25 episode | 1 time: Iran / Iranian, Oct 1 episode, counts as said | 2/367% | 2/367% | 56%n=3 from settlement history |
| ICE | Settled no: ICE, Jun 10 episode | Not listed: ICE, Jul 14 episode | 1 time: ICE, Aug 25 episode, counts as said | 0 times: ICE, Oct 1 episode | 1/333% | 1/333% | 47%n=3 from settlement history |
| Tariff | Not listed: Tariff, Jun 10 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Jul 14 episode | 1 time: Tariff, Aug 25 episode, counts as said | 2 times: Tariff, Oct 1 episode, counts as said | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 59%n=2 from settlement history |
| Epstein | Not listed: Epstein, Jun 10 episode | Settled yes: Epstein, Jul 14 episode | 0 times: Epstein, Aug 25 episode | Not listed: Epstein, Oct 1 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 49%n=2 from settlement history |
| Vance | Not listed: Vance, Jun 10 episode | Not listed: Vance, Jul 14 episode | 0 times: Vance, Aug 25 episode | 0 times: Vance, Oct 1 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 43%n=2 from settlement history |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 10 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jul 14 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Aug 25 episode | 1 time: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 1 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Susan / Collins | Not listed: Susan / Collins, Jun 10 episode | Not listed: Susan / Collins, Jul 14 episode | 11 times: Susan / Collins, Aug 25 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Susan / Collins, Oct 1 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| DOJ / Department of Justice / Justice Department | Not listed: DOJ / Department of Justice / Justice Department, Jun 10 episode | Settled yes: DOJ / Department of Justice / Justice Department, Jul 14 episode | Not listed: DOJ / Department of Justice / Justice Department, Aug 25 episode | Not listed: DOJ / Department of Justice / Justice Department, Oct 1 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Israel / Israeli | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Jun 10 episode | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Jul 14 episode | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Aug 25 episode | 4 times: Israel / Israeli, Oct 1 episode, counts as said | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Oath | Not listed: Oath, Jun 10 episode | Settled yes: Oath, Jul 14 episode | Not listed: Oath, Aug 25 episode | Not listed: Oath, Oct 1 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Jun 10 episode | Not listed: Trump, Jul 14 episode | 1 time: Trump, Aug 25 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Trump, Oct 1 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Attorney General / AG | Not listed: Attorney General / AG, Jun 10 episode | Settled no: Attorney General / AG, Jul 14 episode | Not listed: Attorney General / AG, Aug 25 episode | Not listed: Attorney General / AG, Oct 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Ballroom | Settled no: Ballroom, Jun 10 episode | Not listed: Ballroom, Jul 14 episode | Not listed: Ballroom, Aug 25 episode | Not listed: Ballroom, Oct 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Billionaire | Not listed: Billionaire, Jun 10 episode | Not listed: Billionaire, Jul 14 episode | Not listed: Billionaire, Aug 25 episode | 0 times: Billionaire, Oct 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Todd / Blanche | Not listed: Todd / Blanche, Jun 10 episode | Settled no: Todd / Blanche, Jul 14 episode | Not listed: Todd / Blanche, Aug 25 episode | Not listed: Todd / Blanche, Oct 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Graham / Platner | Not listed: Graham / Platner, Jun 10 episode | Not listed: Graham / Platner, Jul 14 episode | 0 times: Graham / Platner, Aug 25 episode | Not listed: Graham / Platner, Oct 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Personal Lawyer | Not listed: Personal Lawyer, Jun 10 episode | Settled no: Personal Lawyer, Jul 14 episode | Not listed: Personal Lawyer, Aug 25 episode | Not listed: Personal Lawyer, Oct 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Pulte | Settled no: Pulte, Jun 10 episode | Not listed: Pulte, Jul 14 episode | Not listed: Pulte, Aug 25 episode | Not listed: Pulte, Oct 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Schumer | Not listed: Schumer, Jun 10 episode | Not listed: Schumer, Jul 14 episode | Not listed: Schumer, Aug 25 episode | 0 times: Schumer, Oct 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Unfit / Unqualified | Not listed: Unfit / Unqualified, Jun 10 episode | Settled no: Unfit / Unqualified, Jul 14 episode | Not listed: Unfit / Unqualified, Aug 25 episode | Not listed: Unfit / Unqualified, Oct 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| War / War Powers | Not listed: War / War Powers, Jun 10 episode | Settled no: War / War Powers, Jul 14 episode | Not listed: War / War Powers, Aug 25 episode | Not listed: War / War Powers, Oct 1 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 4Our transcript counts matched how 26 of 26 settled words resolved (100.0%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Abdul El-Sayed say during The Beat with Ari Melber? | Captions · machine-attributed | 14 | 8 yes · 6 no | 13/13 (100%) |
| Aug 25, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Troy Jackson say during MS NOW: The Beat with Ari Melber? | Captions · machine-attributed | 14 | 6 yes · 8 no | 13/13 (100%) |
| Jul 14, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Cory Booker say during MS NOW: The Beat with Ari Melber? | no transcript | 17 | 8 yes · 9 no | – |
| Jun 10, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Hakeem Jeffries say during MS NOW: The Beat with Ari Melber? | no transcript | 13 | 9 yes · 4 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “The Beat with Ari Melber: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-beat-with-ari-melber (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/the-beat-with-ari-melber · words: /api/v1/history?entity=the-beat-with-ari-melber · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP