The Weeknight (MS NOW), October 19, 2026
On the Oct 19, 2026 episode of The Weeknight, 6 of the 12 words Kalshi listed were said; Parrot’s count agreed with all 12 settlements. Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Updated
Markets
12 words · 6 settled yes · our count agreed on 12 of 12- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | 5 | 67 | ✓ | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 75%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 2 | 8 | ✓ | 70%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption / Crook | Yes | 2 | 11 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | Yes | 1 | 9 | ✓ | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Billionaire | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 22%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Diesel | No | 0 | 6 | ✓ | 57%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 0 | 9 | ✓ | 32%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
counts and timings onlyCaptions · machine-attributed · Internet Archive TV News Archive (broadcast captions) · Source · Counts and timings only: the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Where the listed words were said
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/the-weeknight:2026-10-19:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=the-weeknight:2026-10-19:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP