Will “Trump” be said on The Weeknight next time?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Trump” was said on The Weeknight in 12 of 14 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 9, 2025 (86%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 16, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.

50%from settlement history only · n=14counts: named speaker only
Last 10
8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=the-weeknight&word=trump

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The Weeknight

Trump

Probability
50% · n=14
Settled
12/14 (86%)
Last 5 episodes
said in 1 of 1 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Weeknight? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Mark Kelly say during The Weeknight? · not listed

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What will Cory Booker say during The Weeknight? · not listed

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What will Andy Beshear say during The Weeknight? · said 6 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

6 counted; 42 by speakers the rule does not count.

Andy Beshearguest7:54In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Andy Beshearguest8:36In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Every match in the transcript

What will Abdul El-Sayed say during The Weeknight? · said 2 times (counts)

Open the appearance

Counts: named speaker only

2 counted; 37 by speakers the rule does not count.

Abdul El-Sayedguest9:49In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Abdul El-Sayedguest13:42In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Every match in the transcript

What will Katie Hobbs say during MS NOW: The Weeknight? · not listed

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What will Raphael Warnock say during MS NOW: The Weeknight? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Wes Moore say during The Weeknight? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Adam Schiff say during MS NOW: The Weeknight? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jacky Rosen say during The Weeknight? · settled no

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 14 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Sep 22, 2026TrumpKalshiYes6
Sep 16, 2026TrumpKalshiYes2
Apr 27, 2026TrumpKalshiNo–
Apr 14, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Mar 7, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Mar 6, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Feb 17, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Feb 14, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Feb 4, 2026TrumpKalshiNo–
Jan 24, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Jan 16, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Jan 14, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Jan 10, 2026TrumpKalshiYes–
Dec 9, 2025TrumpKalshiYes–

Questions

How often is “Trump” said on The Weeknight?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Trump” was said on The Weeknight in 12 of 14 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 9, 2025 (86%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026.
What is the probability “Trump” is said on The Weeknight next time?
50%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “The Weeknight: ‘Trump’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-weeknight/words/trump (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-weeknight&word=trump · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-weeknight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP