Will “Trump” appear on the next NYT front page?
As of Oct 26, 2026, “Trump” appeared on the NYT front page on 18 of 18 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 31, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 12, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 71% (n=18, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 front pages we have transcripts for (Sep 6, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, anyone) in 8.
- Last 10
- 10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 10 times
- Counts
- anyone
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearanceThe New York Times (front page)
Trump
- Probability
- 71% · n=18
- Settled
- 18/18 (100%)
- Last 8 front pages
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: anyone
Counts: anyone
10 counted.
Trump’s Unpopularity Digs Hole for Party
Often ‘Nay’ on Trump Agenda, Collins Rarely Affects Outcome
Counts: anyone
9 counted.
Deal Meshes Russian Oil, Ukraine and Trump Allies
At Dog Park, Trading Words, Then Gunshots, Over Trump
Counts: anyone
6 counted.
High Gas and Mortgage Rates Are Tailing Trump to Midterms
Every settled listing
newest first · 18 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Trump |  Polymarket | Yes | 10 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | Yes | 9 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | Yes | 11 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | Yes | 10 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | Yes | 9 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | Yes | 5 |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | Yes | 7 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | Yes | 11 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 31, 2026 | Trump | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does “Trump” appear on the NYT front page?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, “Trump” appeared on the NYT front page on 18 of 18 days with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 31, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 12, 2026.
- What is the probability “Trump” appears on the NYT front page next time?
- 71%, from settlement history (n=18). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: anyone.
Cite parrot.markets, “NYT front page: ‘Trump’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/nyt-front-page/words/trump (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=nyt-front-page&word=trump · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=nyt-front-page&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP