NewsNation
As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi has settled 103 word markets on NewsNation since 2026, on 77 different words; most reliably said: “Democrat” (3 of 5).
History Wall
1–40 of 79, most settled first · page 1 of 2| Word | Jan 28episode | Feb 3episode | Feb 10episode | Feb 27episode | Mar 20episode | Apr 13episode | Apr 23episode | Jun 4latest | Last 8 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Not listed: Democrat, Jan 28 episode | Settled no: Democrat, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Democrat, Feb 10 episode | Settled yes: Democrat, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Democrat, Mar 20 episode | Settled yes: Democrat, Apr 13 episode | Settled no: Democrat, Apr 23 episode | Settled yes: Democrat, Jun 4 episode | 3/560% | 3/560% | 36%n=5 from settlement history |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Jan 28 episode | Settled no: Trump, Feb 3 episode | Settled yes: Trump, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Trump, Feb 27 episode | Settled yes: Trump, Mar 20 episode | Settled yes: Trump, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Trump, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Trump, Jun 4 episode | 3/475% | 3/475% | 35%n=4 from settlement history |
| Epsteinnever said | Not listed: Epstein, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Epstein, Feb 3 episode | Settled no: Epstein, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Epstein, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Epstein, Mar 20 episode | Settled no: Epstein, Apr 13 episode | Settled no: Epstein, Apr 23 episode | Settled no: Epstein, Jun 4 episode | 0/40% | 0/40% | 32%n=4 from settlement history |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Feb 10 episode | Settled no: Corrupt / Corruption, Feb 27 episode | Settled no: Corrupt / Corruption, Mar 20 episode | Settled no: Corrupt / Corruption, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Jun 4 episode | 0/30% | 0/30% | 33%n=3 from settlement history |
| Iran / Iranian | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 20 episode | Settled no: Iran / Iranian, Apr 13 episode | Settled no: Iran / Iranian, Apr 23 episode | Settled no: Iran / Iranian, Jun 4 episode | 0/30% | 0/30% | 33%n=3 from settlement history |
| Ghislaine / Maxwell | Not listed: Ghislaine / Maxwell, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Ghislaine / Maxwell, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Ghislaine / Maxwell, Feb 10 episode | Settled yes: Ghislaine / Maxwell, Feb 27 episode | Settled yes: Ghislaine / Maxwell, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Ghislaine / Maxwell, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Ghislaine / Maxwell, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Ghislaine / Maxwell, Jun 4 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 34%n=2 from settlement history |
| Pam / Bondi | Not listed: Pam / Bondi, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Pam / Bondi, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Pam / Bondi, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Pam / Bondi, Feb 27 episode | Settled yes: Pam / Bondi, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Pam / Bondi, Apr 13 episode | Settled no: Pam / Bondi, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Pam / Bondi, Jun 4 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 34%n=2 from settlement history |
| Not listed: Email, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Email, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Email, Feb 10 episode | Settled yes: Email, Feb 27 episode | Settled no: Email, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Email, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Email, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Email, Jun 4 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 34%n=2 from settlement history | |
| Healthcare | Not listed: Healthcare, Jan 28 episode | Settled yes: Healthcare, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Healthcare, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Healthcare, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Healthcare, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Healthcare, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Healthcare, Apr 23 episode | Settled no: Healthcare, Jun 4 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 33%n=2 from settlement history |
| Redacted / Unredacted / Redaction | Not listed: Redacted / Unredacted / Redaction, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Redacted / Unredacted / Redaction, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Redacted / Unredacted / Redaction, Feb 10 episode | Settled no: Redacted / Unredacted / Redaction, Feb 27 episode | Settled yes: Redacted / Unredacted / Redaction, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Redacted / Unredacted / Redaction, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Redacted / Unredacted / Redaction, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Redacted / Unredacted / Redaction, Jun 4 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 34%n=2 from settlement history |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 13 episode | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 23 episode | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 4 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 33%n=2 from settlement history |
| Biden | Not listed: Biden, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Biden, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Biden, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Biden, Feb 27 episode | Settled no: Biden, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Biden, Apr 13 episode | Settled no: Biden, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Biden, Jun 4 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 33%n=2 from settlement history |
| Election | Not listed: Election, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Election, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Election, Feb 10 episode | Settled no: Election, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Election, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Election, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Election, Apr 23 episode | Settled no: Election, Jun 4 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 33%n=2 from settlement history |
| Iran | Not listed: Iran, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Iran, Feb 3 episode | Settled no: Iran, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Iran, Feb 27 episode | Settled no: Iran, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Iran, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Iran, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Iran, Jun 4 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 34%n=2 from settlement history |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Settled no: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Apr 23 episode | Settled no: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Jun 4 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 33%n=2 from settlement history |
| Cage / Basement | Not listed: Cage / Basement, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Cage / Basement, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Cage / Basement, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Cage / Basement, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Cage / Basement, Mar 20 episode | Settled yes: Cage / Basement, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Cage / Basement, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Cage / Basement, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bipartisan | Not listed: Bipartisan, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Bipartisan, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Bipartisan, Feb 10 episode | Settled yes: Bipartisan, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Bipartisan, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Bipartisan, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Bipartisan, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Bipartisan, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | Not listed: Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis, Apr 13 episode | Settled yes: Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| China / Chinese | Not listed: China / Chinese, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Apr 23 episode | Settled yes: China / Chinese, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Clinton | Not listed: Clinton, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Clinton, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Clinton, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Clinton, Feb 27 episode | Settled yes: Clinton, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Clinton, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Clinton, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Clinton, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Erika / Kirk | Not listed: Erika / Kirk, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Erika / Kirk, Feb 3 episode | Settled yes: Erika / Kirk, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Erika / Kirk, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Erika / Kirk, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Erika / Kirk, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Erika / Kirk, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Erika / Kirk, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Fentanyl | Not listed: Fentanyl, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Fentanyl, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Fentanyl, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Fentanyl, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Fentanyl, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Fentanyl, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Fentanyl, Apr 23 episode | Settled yes: Fentanyl, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Plane / Flight | Not listed: Plane / Flight, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Plane / Flight, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Plane / Flight, Feb 10 episode | Settled yes: Plane / Flight, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Plane / Flight, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Plane / Flight, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Plane / Flight, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Plane / Flight, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Fraud | Not listed: Fraud, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Fraud, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Fraud, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Fraud, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Fraud, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Fraud, Apr 13 episode | Settled yes: Fraud, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Fraud, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Noem / Homan | Settled yes: Noem / Homan, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Noem / Homan, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Noem / Homan, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Noem / Homan, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Noem / Homan, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Noem / Homan, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Noem / Homan, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Noem / Homan, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| JD / Vance | Not listed: JD / Vance, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: JD / Vance, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: JD / Vance, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: JD / Vance, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: JD / Vance, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: JD / Vance, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: JD / Vance, Apr 23 episode | Settled yes: JD / Vance, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Khanna / Massie | Not listed: Khanna / Massie, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Khanna / Massie, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Khanna / Massie, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Khanna / Massie, Feb 27 episode | Settled yes: Khanna / Massie, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Khanna / Massie, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Khanna / Massie, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Khanna / Massie, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Mental Health | Not listed: Mental Health, Jan 28 episode | Settled yes: Mental Health, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Mental Health, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Mental Health, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Mental Health, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Mental Health, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Mental Health, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Mental Health, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Apr 23 episode | Settled yes: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Puerto Rico | Not listed: Puerto Rico, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Puerto Rico, Feb 3 episode | Settled yes: Puerto Rico, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Puerto Rico, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Puerto Rico, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Puerto Rico, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Puerto Rico, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Puerto Rico, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Race / Racism / Racist | Not listed: Race / Racism / Racist, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Race / Racism / Racist, Feb 3 episode | Settled yes: Race / Racism / Racist, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Race / Racism / Racist, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Race / Racism / Racist, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Race / Racism / Racist, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Race / Racism / Racist, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Race / Racism / Racist, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Rumor | Not listed: Rumor, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Rumor, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Rumor, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Rumor, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Rumor, Mar 20 episode | Settled yes: Rumor, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Rumor, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Rumor, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| SPLC / Southern Poverty Law Center | Not listed: SPLC / Southern Poverty Law Center, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: SPLC / Southern Poverty Law Center, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: SPLC / Southern Poverty Law Center, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: SPLC / Southern Poverty Law Center, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: SPLC / Southern Poverty Law Center, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: SPLC / Southern Poverty Law Center, Apr 13 episode | Settled yes: SPLC / Southern Poverty Law Center, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: SPLC / Southern Poverty Law Center, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Victim / Survivor | Not listed: Victim / Survivor, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Victim / Survivor, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Victim / Survivor, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Victim / Survivor, Feb 27 episode | Settled yes: Victim / Survivor, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Victim / Survivor, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Victim / Survivor, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Victim / Survivor, Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump3+ times | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Apr 13 episode | Settled yes: Trump (3+ times), Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump5+ times | Not listed: Trump (5+ times), Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Trump (5+ times), Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Trump (5+ times), Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Trump (5+ times), Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Trump (5+ times), Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Trump (5+ times), Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Trump (5+ times), Apr 23 episode | Settled yes: Trump (5+ times), Jun 4 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jan 28 episode | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jun 4 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Antisemitism / Antisemitic | Settled no: Antisemitism / Antisemitic, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Antisemitism / Antisemitic, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Antisemitism / Antisemitic, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Antisemitism / Antisemitic, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Antisemitism / Antisemitic, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Antisemitism / Antisemitic, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Antisemitism / Antisemitic, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Antisemitism / Antisemitic, Jun 4 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Autism | Not listed: Autism, Jan 28 episode | Settled no: Autism, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Autism, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Autism, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Autism, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Autism, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Autism, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Autism, Jun 4 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bill Gates | Not listed: Bill Gates, Jan 28 episode | Not listed: Bill Gates, Feb 3 episode | Not listed: Bill Gates, Feb 10 episode | Settled no: Bill Gates, Feb 27 episode | Not listed: Bill Gates, Mar 20 episode | Not listed: Bill Gates, Apr 13 episode | Not listed: Bill Gates, Apr 23 episode | Not listed: Bill Gates, Jun 4 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 8Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Kash Patel & Todd Blanche say during Katie Pavlich Tonight? | no transcript | 16 | 6 yes · 10 no | – |
| Apr 23, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Todd Blanche say during Katie Pavlich Tonight? | no transcript | 15 | 4 yes · 11 no | – |
| Apr 13, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will George Santos say during his Newsmax interview? | no transcript | 12 | 4 yes · 8 no | – |
| Mar 20, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Todd Blanche say during his NewsNation interview? | no transcript | 13 | 7 yes · 6 no | – |
| Feb 27, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will James Comer say during his NewsNation interview? | no transcript | 11 | 5 yes · 6 no | – |
| Feb 10, 2026 | EpisodeMention: Geraldo Rivera on NewsNation | no transcript | 11 | 4 yes · 7 no | – |
| Feb 3, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will RFK say during his NewsNation interview? | no transcript | 14 | 2 yes · 12 no | – |
| Jan 28, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Ben Shapiro say during Katie Pavlich Tonight? | no transcript | 15 | 1 yes · 14 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “NewsNation: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/newsnation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/newsnation · words: /api/v1/history?entity=newsnation · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP