Will “Republican” be said on The Weeknight next time?

As of Oct 24, 2026, “Republican” was said on The Weeknight in 6 of 16 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 9, 2025 (38%), most recently on Sep 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=16, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 episodes we have transcripts for (Sep 16, 2026 – Oct 19, 2026), 1 names the market's speakers, and the word did not reach the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in it.

39%from settlement history only · n=16counts: named speaker only
Last 10
5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no no yes no yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=the-weeknight&word=republican

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

The Weeknight

Republican

Probability
39% · n=16
Settled
6/16 (38%)
Last 5 episodes
said in 0 of 1 that name the speakers

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Jon Ossoff say during The Weeknight? · not listed

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What will Mark Kelly say during The Weeknight? · not said

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What will Cory Booker say during The Weeknight? · said 5 times (counts)

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Counts: named speaker only

5 counted; 13 by speakers the rule does not count.

Cory Bookerguest24:33In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Cory Bookerguest26:18In transcript

Caption text not shown: counts and timings only; the captions are at the Internet Archive.

Every match in the transcript

What will Andy Beshear say during The Weeknight? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Abdul El-Sayed say during The Weeknight? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Katie Hobbs say during MS NOW: The Weeknight? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Raphael Warnock say during MS NOW: The Weeknight? · settled yes

Open the appearance

We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Wes Moore say during The Weeknight? · settled no

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What will Adam Schiff say during MS NOW: The Weeknight? · settled no

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What will Jacky Rosen say during The Weeknight? · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 16 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Sep 29, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo0
Sep 23, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes5
Aug 13, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Jun 22, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Jun 16, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Jun 15, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Apr 27, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Apr 14, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Mar 7, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Mar 6, 2026RepublicanKalshiYes–
Feb 17, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Feb 14, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Feb 4, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Jan 24, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Jan 10, 2026RepublicanKalshiNo–
Dec 9, 2025RepublicanKalshiYes–

Questions

How often is “Republican” said on The Weeknight?
As of Oct 24, 2026, “Republican” was said on The Weeknight in 6 of 16 episodes with a settled Kalshi mention market since Dec 9, 2025 (38%), most recently on Sep 23, 2026.
What is the probability “Republican” is said on The Weeknight next time?
39%, from settlement history (n=16). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “The Weeknight: ‘Republican’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news/the-weeknight/words/republican (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=the-weeknight&word=republican · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=the-weeknight&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP