Will Kevin Warsh say “Interest rate”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Interest rate” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 21, 2026 (50%), most recently on Apr 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 30% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kevin Warsh
Interest rate
- Probability
- 30% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 2 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…consumers? And I have to ask, what is your message here to President Trump, who has repeatedly called to cut interest rates, not raise them?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…across the Treasury curve. In fact, some of the increases in market interest rates between FOMC meetings are among the most significant in the last…
…transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, whether monetary policy is coming from our interest rate tool or our balance sheet tool. But the good news, we…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | Interest rate |  Polymarket | No |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Interest Rate | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Kevin Warsh say “Interest rate”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Interest rate” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Apr 21, 2026 (50%), most recently on Apr 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Interest rate” next time?
- 30%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Interest rate’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/interest-rate (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=interest%20rate · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP