Will Kevin Warsh say “Layoff”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Layoff” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 14, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jul 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 27% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kevin Warsh
Layoff
- Probability
- 27% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 0 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Kevin Warsh say “Layoff”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Layoff” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 14, 2026 (50%), most recently on Jul 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Layoff” next time?
- 27%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Layoff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/layoff (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=layoff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP