Kevin Warsh: Speech, May 22, 2026
Polymarket What will Kevin Warsh say during his Swearing-In?
Markets
24 words · 9 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| America / American 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Challenge | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fed | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Honor | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Independence / Independent | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Job | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stability | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wife / Family | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Interest rate | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bernanke / Yellen / Powell | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Central bank | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| China | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Congress | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Economy / Economics / Economic 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Employment 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Federal Reserve 10+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Federal Reserve 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Governor | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Unemployment | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| War / Iran | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-kevin-warsh-say-during-his-swearing-in · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP