Kevin Warsh: Hearing, Jul 14, 2026
Kalshi What will Kevin Warsh say during the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report?
Markets
20 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 64%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Productivity | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Layoff | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Raise / Hike | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Resilient / Resilience | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shock | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | Yes | 23%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Powell | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Rate Cut / Cut Rate | No | 58%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 55%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Restrictive | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Uncertainty | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deflation / Deflationary | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stablecoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Recession | No | 31%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Renovation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | No | 23%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 23%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWARSHMENTION-26JUL14 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP