Will Kevin Warsh say “Rate Hike / Hike Rate”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh did not say “Rate Hike / Hike Rate” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 19% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kevin Warsh
Rate Hike / Hike Rate
- Probability
- 19% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 0 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Let me navigate over to my questions. You know, a ¼ point rate hike does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And so I wonder…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…inflation overshoot is being caused by supply shocks—as it’s mentioned again in, in the statement—does that blunt the effectiveness of rate hikes in your view?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Rate Hike / Hike Rate |  Kalshi | No |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Rate Hike / Hike Rate | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Kevin Warsh say “Rate Hike / Hike Rate”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh did not say “Rate Hike / Hike Rate” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 28, 2026.
- What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Rate Hike / Hike Rate” next time?
- 19%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Rate Hike / Hike Rate’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/hike-rate-or-rate-hike (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=hike%20rate%20%2F%20rate%20hike · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP