What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Raise / Hike” next time?

62%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Kevin Warsh say “Raise / Hike”?

Name: Kevin Warsh: “Raise / Hike” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Raise / Hike” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 14, 2026.

Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 hearings have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 17:13 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Kevin Warsh

Raise / Hike

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 3 transcripts: said in 1 of 3

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Kevin WarshspeakerFOMC press conference, September 16, 2026 · Sep 16, 2026In transcript

Good day. In the meeting just concluded, the FOMC decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a ¼ percentage point…

COLBY SMITHreporterFOMC press conference, July 29, 2026 · Jul 29, 2026In transcript

…how you view the effectiveness of those tools. If inflation is too high and not coming down, is the best remedy to raise interest rates?

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

CLAIRE JONESreporterFOMC press conference, June 17, 2026 · Jun 17, 2026In transcript

…we’ve all appreciated in the room, one might wonder why you didn’t raise rates today considering what you’re saying here about the, the risks to…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Kevin Warsh say during his fireside chat with International Monetary Fund? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Kevin Warsh say during his Jackson Hole remarks? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Kevin Warsh say during the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report? · settled yes

Open the appearance

We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Kevin Warsh say during his ECB discussion? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Kevin Warsh say during his Swearing-In? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Kevin Warsh say during his Senate Confirmation Hearing? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Jul 14, 2026	Raise / Hike	Kalshi	Yes

Questions

How often does Kevin Warsh say “Raise / Hike”?: As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Raise / Hike” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 14, 2026.
What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Raise / Hike” next time?: 62%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Raise / Hike’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/hike-or-raise (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=hike%20%2F%20raise · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP