Will Kevin Warsh say “Tariff”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh did not say “Tariff” at any of the 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 14% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

14%from settlement history only · n=5counts: named speaker only
Last 10
0/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 5 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=tariff

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Kevin Warsh

Tariff

Probability
14% · n=5
Settled
0/5 (0%)
Last 3 transcripts
said in 1 of 3

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

JENNIFER SCHONBERGERreporterFOMC press conference, September 16, 2026 · Sep 16, 2026In transcript

…Yahoo Finance. Inflation has run up mostly from higher energy prices and tariffs, which some say are supply shocks that rate hikes cannot fix and…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Kevin WarshspeakerFOMC press conference, July 29, 2026 · Jul 29, 2026In transcript

…years. Strained supply chains arising from the pandemic, military conflicts, energy supply disruptions, substantial increases in tariff rates, and, yes, the surge in AI-related investment.

What will Kevin Warsh say during his fireside chat with International Monetary Fund? · settled no

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his Jackson Hole remarks? · settled no

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What will Kevin Warsh say during the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report? · settled no

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his ECB discussion? · settled no

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his Swearing-In? · not listed

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his Senate Confirmation Hearing? · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 5 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 15, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Aug 28, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Jul 14, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Jul 1, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Apr 21, 2026TariffKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Kevin Warsh say “Tariff”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh did not say “Tariff” at any of the 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 21, 2026.
What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Tariff” next time?
14%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP