Kevin Warsh: Keynote, Jul 1, 2026
Kalshi What will Kevin Warsh say during his ECB discussion?
Markets
15 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Productivity | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Data | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Powell | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rate Cut / Cut Rates | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Deflation / Deflationary | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Middle East | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stablecoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWARSHMENTION-26JUL01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP