Kevin Warsh: Panel, Oct 15, 2026
Kalshi What will Kevin Warsh say during his fireside chat with International Monetary Fund?
Markets
19 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Productivity | Yes | 63%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 57%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| 2008 / Financial Crisis | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Price Stability / Stable Price | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Task Force | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Resilient / Resilience | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Forward Guidance | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Layoff | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Independent / Independence | No | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Dollar | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Balance Sheet | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rate Hike / Hike Rate | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Trump | No | 29%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Stablecoin | No | 26%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Recession | No | 24%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 24%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWARSHMENTION-26OCT15 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP