Will Kevin Warsh say “Independent / Independence”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Independent / Independence” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 22, 2026 (33%), most recently on May 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 23% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kevin Warsh
Independent / Independence
- Probability
- 23% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 2 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the President. And I’m not a Wall Street newsletter. Part of the independence of the Federal Reserve is we stay in our lane. Independence is…
…the public be confident that a committee he cochairs will provide an independent assessment of AI’s economic effects, rather than one aligned with the interests…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…and purpose over the last couple of days. For each of these independent task forces, I’m enlisting some of the very best minds—both inside and…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Independent / Independence |  Kalshi | No |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Independent / Independence |  Polymarket | No |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Independent / Independence | Kalshi | No |
| May 22, 2026 | Independence / Independent | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Kevin Warsh say “Independent / Independence”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Independent / Independence” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 22, 2026 (33%), most recently on May 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Independent / Independence” next time?
- 23%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Independent / Independence’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/independence-or-independent (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=independence%20%2F%20independent · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP