Will Kevin Warsh say “Challenge”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Challenge” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 22, 2026 (100%), most recently on Aug 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 72% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kevin Warsh
Challenge
- Probability
- 72% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 1 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…the policy decisions that are made about the risks and rewards, the challenges and opportunities, those are decisions made by other parts of the government.…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Kevin Warsh say “Challenge”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Challenge” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since May 22, 2026 (100%), most recently on Aug 28, 2026.
- What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Challenge” next time?
- 72%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Challenge’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/challenge (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=challenge · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP