Will Kevin Warsh say “Forward Guidance”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Forward Guidance” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 28, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 28% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kevin Warsh
Forward Guidance
- Probability
- 28% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 3 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…question from you, Colby. This won’t surprise you: I’m not in the forward guidance business. The decision we made today was a sober decision, serious…
…Prices reacted in real time to incoming information, and the reduction in forward guidance may have been a factor. Market participants are learning to play…
Absent, also, is so-called forward guidance—which we agreed was not well suited to the current policy conjuncture. This afternoon, you also received the usual Summary…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Forward Guidance |  Kalshi | No |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Forward Guidance | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Kevin Warsh say “Forward Guidance”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Forward Guidance” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 28, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 28, 2026.
- What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Forward Guidance” next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Forward Guidance’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/forward-guidance (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=forward%20guidance · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP