Will Kevin Warsh say “Productivity”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Productivity” at 5 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 21, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 75% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 5/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kevin Warsh
Productivity
- Probability
- 75% · n=5
- Settled
- 5/5 (100%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 3 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…remains elevated—owing, in part, to geopolitical developments—domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth—strong; and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace…
…that you got at two o’clock, the economy—output is solid. Capex and productivity are strong— labor markets—solid, steady. The bond market—the Treasury market—it seems to…
…uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment—both strong. Job gains have kept pace with the…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Productivity |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Productivity |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Productivity | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Productivity | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Productivity | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Productivity | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Kevin Warsh say “Productivity”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Productivity” at 5 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 21, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Productivity” next time?
- 75%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Productivity’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/productivity (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=productivity · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP