Kevin Warsh: Hearing, Apr 21, 2026
Kalshi What will Kevin Warsh say during his Senate Confirmation Hearing?
Polymarket What will Kevin Warsh say during Senate Nomination Hearing?
Markets
34 words · 19 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 / Financial Crisis | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bessent | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Constitution | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fed 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Global | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Independence | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inflation 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Interest Rate | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Labor | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Monetary Policy | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Powell | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Price Stability | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Productivity | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Quantitative | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rate Cut / Cut Rate | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wife | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cook | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Epstein | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Estee Lauder | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| God | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| IMF | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Judy Shelton | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Oil | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Renovation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Supply Chain | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| World Bank | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWARSHMENTION-26APR21 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP