Will Kevin Warsh say “Deflation / Deflationary”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Kevin Warsh did not say “Deflation / Deflationary” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 1, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 21% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 hearings have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kevin Warsh
Deflation / Deflationary
- Probability
- 21% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 0 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2026 | Deflation / Deflationary |  Kalshi | No |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Deflation / Deflationary | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Kevin Warsh say “Deflation / Deflationary”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Kevin Warsh did not say “Deflation / Deflationary” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 1, 2026.
- What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Deflation / Deflationary” next time?
- 21%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Deflation / Deflationary’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/deflation-or-deflationary (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=deflation%20%2F%20deflationary · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP