What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “CapEx / Capital Expenditure” next time?

62%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Kevin Warsh say “CapEx / Capital Expenditure”?

Name: Kevin Warsh: “CapEx / Capital Expenditure” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “CapEx / Capital Expenditure” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Aug 28, 2026.

Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 18:01 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Kevin Warsh

CapEx / Capital Expenditure

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 3 transcripts: said in 2 of 3

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Kevin WarshspeakerFOMC press conference, September 16, 2026 · Sep 16, 2026In transcript

Second reason, competition for capital. The surge in capital expenditures, which I referenced in my remarks, is real, and the so-called hyperscalers are out in…

Kevin WarshspeakerFOMC press conference, July 29, 2026 · Jul 29, 2026In transcript

…economy is the strong growth of business investment. The surge in high-tech capex has been remarkable. But that does not necessarily make the Fed’s role…

NICK TIMIRAOSreporterFOMC press conference, June 17, 2026 · Jun 17, 2026In transcript

…could ask about AI, the buildout is generating enormous demand right now, cap-ex, data centers, power. The productivity payoff may be further out. So, in…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Kevin Warsh say during his fireside chat with International Monetary Fund? · not listed

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his Jackson Hole remarks? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Kevin Warsh say during the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report? · not listed

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his ECB discussion? · not listed

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his Swearing-In? · not listed

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his Senate Confirmation Hearing? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Aug 28, 2026	CapEx / Capital Expenditure	Polymarket	Yes

Questions

How often does Kevin Warsh say “CapEx / Capital Expenditure”?: As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “CapEx / Capital Expenditure” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Aug 28, 2026.
What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “CapEx / Capital Expenditure” next time?: 62%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘CapEx / Capital Expenditure’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/capex-or-capital-expenditure (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=capex%20%2F%20capital%20expenditure · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP