Kevin Warsh: Remarks, Aug 28, 2026
Kalshi What will Kevin Warsh say during his Jackson Hole remarks?
Polymarket What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Markets
43 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Challenge | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Productivity | Yes | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 55%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| 2008 / Financial Crisis | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Forward Guidance | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Price Stability / Stable Price | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Task Force | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bank / Asset 10+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| CapEx / Capital Expenditure | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Good Morning | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Regime | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Independent / Independence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Balance Sheet | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bond Market | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Footprint | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gold | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Good Day | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Middle East | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Quantitative Tightening / QT | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rate Hike / Hike Rate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Volcker | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Yield Curve | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Community | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Framework | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ingenuity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Integrity | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Payment System | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prediction / Predictive | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stable 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Task Force 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Too Late | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Powell | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Rate Cut / Cut Rate | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 33%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Stablecoin | No | 30%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Recession | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXWARSHMENTION-26AUG28 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP