Will Kevin Warsh say “AI / Artificial Intelligence”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “AI / Artificial Intelligence” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 21, 2026 (83%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 72% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 5/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kevin Warsh
AI / Artificial Intelligence
- Probability
- 72% · n=6
- Settled
- 5/6 (83%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 3 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…But we do have responsibility for stable prices—as I’ve said before, inflation is a, is a choice—and today we took a step in delivering it.
…that does not necessarily make the Fed’s role any easier. In the AI-related category of high-tech equipment and software, the most recent data shows four-quarter…
…the pace, the reach, the economic impact of new general-purpose technologies, including AI, and explore the implications for the Fed in pursuit of our employment…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | AI / Artificial Intelligence |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 28, 2026 | AI / Artificial Intelligence | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jul 14, 2026 | AI / Artificial Intelligence | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jul 1, 2026 | AI / Artificial Intelligence | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 22, 2026 | AI / Artificial Intelligence |  Polymarket | No |
| Apr 21, 2026 | AI / Artificial Intelligence | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Kevin Warsh say “AI / Artificial Intelligence”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “AI / Artificial Intelligence” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 21, 2026 (83%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “AI / Artificial Intelligence” next time?
- 72%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘AI / Artificial Intelligence’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/ai-or-artificial-intelligence (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=ai%20%2F%20artificial%20intelligence · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP