What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Fed 10+ times” next time?

63%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Kevin Warsh say “Fed” 10+ times?

Name: Kevin Warsh: “Fed 10+ times” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 25, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Fed” 10+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 21, 2026.

Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 hearings have transcripts, it reached the market's count (10+, named speaker only) in 2.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 25, 2026, 08:50 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Kevin Warsh

Fed 10+ times

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 3 transcripts: said in 2 of 3

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Kevin WarshspeakerFOMC press conference, September 16, 2026 · Sep 16, 2026In transcript

…at levels consistent with full employment. So the labor side of the Fed’s congressional remit is in good shape. Yet, for more than five years,…

Kevin WarshspeakerFOMC press conference, July 29, 2026 · Jul 29, 2026In transcript

…high inflation have left a mistaken impression that’s hard to shake—that the Fed’s implicit inflation target was somehow above 2 percent. Let me reiterate: There…

Kevin WarshspeakerFOMC press conference, June 17, 2026 · Jun 17, 2026In transcript

…lot of new ideas, new thinking, and genuine interest in moving the Fed forward. This week’s FOMC meeting exemplified the very best of the Fed’s…

What will Kevin Warsh say during his fireside chat with International Monetary Fund? · not listed

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his Jackson Hole remarks? · not listed

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What will Kevin Warsh say during the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report? · not listed

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his ECB discussion? · not listed

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his Swearing-In? · not listed

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What will Kevin Warsh say during his Senate Confirmation Hearing? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Apr 21, 2026	Fed 10+ times	Polymarket	Yes

Questions

How often does Kevin Warsh say “Fed 10+ times”?: As of Oct 25, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Fed” 10+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Apr 21, 2026.
What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Fed 10+ times” next time?: 63%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Fed 10+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/fed-10plus (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=fed%20%2810%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP