Will Kevin Warsh say “2008 / Financial Crisis”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “2008 / Financial Crisis” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 21, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 71% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kevin Warsh
2008 / Financial Crisis
- Probability
- 71% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 1 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…very long time, in a lot of countries, coming out of the 2008 crisis, where in crisis mode we were purposely providing a lot of…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 2008 / Financial Crisis |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 2008 / Financial Crisis |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 2008 / Financial Crisis | Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 21, 2026 | 2008 / Financial Crisis | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Kevin Warsh say “2008 / Financial Crisis”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “2008 / Financial Crisis” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 21, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “2008 / Financial Crisis” next time?
- 71%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘2008 / Financial Crisis’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/2008-or-financial-crisis (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=2008%20%2F%20financial%20crisis · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP