Will Kevin Warsh say “Trump”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Trump” at 1 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 21, 2026 (17%), most recently on Apr 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 18% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 panels have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kevin Warsh
Trump
- Probability
- 18% · n=6
- Settled
- 1/6 (17%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 0 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…consumers? And I have to ask, what is your message here to President Trump, who has repeatedly called to cut interest rates, not raise them?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Kevin Warsh say “Trump”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Trump” at 1 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 21, 2026 (17%), most recently on Apr 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Trump” next time?
- 18%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Trump’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/trump (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=trump · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP