Will Kevin Warsh say “Rate Cut / Cut Rate”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Rate Cut / Cut Rate” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 21, 2026 (25%), most recently on Apr 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 21% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press conferences; Jun 17, 2026 – Sep 16, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Kevin Warsh
Rate Cut / Cut Rate
- Probability
- 21% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 3 transcripts
- said in 0 of 3
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…fairly hawkish when you listen to—in general, when you listen to what they’re saying. Was there any discussion of a rate cut going forward today?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | Rate Cut / Cut Rate |  Kalshi | No |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Rate Cut / Cut Rate | Kalshi | No |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Rate Cut / Cut Rates | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Rate Cut / Cut Rate | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Kevin Warsh say “Rate Cut / Cut Rate”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Kevin Warsh said “Rate Cut / Cut Rate” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 21, 2026 (25%), most recently on Apr 21, 2026.
- What is the probability Kevin Warsh says “Rate Cut / Cut Rate” next time?
- 21%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Kevin Warsh: ‘Rate Cut / Cut Rate’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/kevin-warsh/words/cut-rate-or-rate-cut (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=kevin-warsh&word=cut%20rate%20%2F%20rate%20cut · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=kevin-warsh&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP