Will Donald Trump say “Drug”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Drug” at 22 of 31 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 8, 2025 (71%), most recently on Jun 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=31, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Drug
- Probability
- 48% · n=31
- Settled
- 22/31 (71%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I got most favored nation agreements to reduce the cost of prescription drugs from the highest drug price in the history of our country to…
…to evade capture. He's explaining to them how to evade capture, murderers, drug dealers, how to evade capture. This is not working for Iowa. He…
…all over the world prisons. They emptied out their prisons. They were drug dealers. They were murderers. 11,888 murders. And I'll tell you what, it's…
…much of this region to be dominated by vicious gangs and bloodthirsty drug cartels, destabilized by uncontrolled migration and infiltrated by hostile foreign adversaries, foreign…
Every settled listing
newest first · 31 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Drug |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| May 18, 2026 | Drug |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Drug | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Drug | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 3, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Drug | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 28, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 15, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 7, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 2, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 13, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 13, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 8, 2025 | Drug | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Drug”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Drug” at 22 of 31 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 8, 2025 (71%), most recently on Jun 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Drug” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=31). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Drug’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/drug (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=drug · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP