Will Donald Trump say “Boat”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Boat” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 3, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jan 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 33% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Boat
- Probability
- 33% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…ocean and a lake. It's got the only one that's on the boat called Mara Lago. I can go home to Mara Lago instead of…
It's tough. But each one of those boats would kill 5 to 10,000 people and destroy families. So when you hear that, you feel a…
…you see that. You shouldn't feel bad because each one of those boats will kill 5 to 10,000 people. So you can't feel that bad…
…the United States has carried out dozens of strikes on cartel drug boats, destroying 97% of the drugs coming into the ocean and sea. You've…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Boat”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Boat” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 3, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jan 3, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Boat” next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Boat’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/boat (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=boat · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP