Speech #2 transcript, Sep 22, 2026 (Donald Trump)
In the speech on Sep 22, 2026, Donald Trump said 26 of the 41 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 15 of 41 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).
UpdatedMarkets
41 words · 26 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 41- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 70%n=360 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Venezuelan | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 64%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 63%n=113 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 62%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 62%n=191 from settlement history | – |
| Billion / Trillion | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 58%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 57%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 55%n=247 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 54%n=184 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 53%n=185 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 51%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Denmark / Danish | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Japan / Japanese | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hostage | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 47%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Diesel | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Zelensky | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 47%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland 3+ times | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Cartel | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 45%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Trade | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 44%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Argentina | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 41%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | Yes | 0 | 2 | ✗ | 40%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Drone / Torpedo | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 40%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Gaza / Palestine | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 37%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth / Mineral | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 33%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 33%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| Qatar | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 49%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Burnham | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AUKUS | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Saudi | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Abraham Accords | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| European Union / EU | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=100 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 31%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 29%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 29%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 28%n=253 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 25%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 12%n=509 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 11%n=113 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 9%n=32 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
10 passagesOfficial transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley; text: the White House (public domain) · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
Questions and answers
Mr. President——
Mr. President——
So it's an honor to be here. I'm surprised that CNN is here covering me. You shouldn't be here. You should not——
The United Nations allowed us in, sir.
You should not be here covering me. You said you weren't going to cover me. You shouldn't be covering me.
[ Inaudible ]—winning the war with Iran?
But I will tell you, it is an honor to be at the United Nations, and we're making a lot of progress. Our country is doing really, really well.
Thank you very much, everybody.
What's your message to Putin? Mr. President, what is your message to Putin?
Settle the war.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-09-22:speech-united-nations-meetings · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-09-22:speech-united-nations-meetings · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP