Will Donald Trump say “Hostage”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hostage” at 5 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 24, 2025 (56%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 5/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Hostage
- Probability
- 56% · n=9
- Settled
- 5/9 (56%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 2 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…if they have a new nuclear weapon, the whole world would be hostage." And this was this was right during a trip to Iowa. I…
And we got all 28 Hamas hostages returned to their families, both living and dead, and hundreds before that. We got them all returned. Got…
…We had a wonderful man who, during the Biden administration, was taken hostage in Russia. They claimed things -- we won't get into that, but…
…raging. Egypt and Ethiopia, Armenia, Azerbaijan. We got all the 28 Hamas hostages returned to their families, both living and dead, and hundreds before that.…
…in this hall, the war in Gaza was still raging brutally. The hostages were still deep in Hamas tunnels and there was no end in…
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Hostage |  Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Hostage | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Hostage |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Hostage | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Hostage | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 14, 2025 | Hostage | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 13, 2025 | Hostage | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 7, 2025 | Hostage | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2025 | Hostage | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Hostage”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hostage” at 5 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 24, 2025 (56%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Hostage” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Hostage’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/hostage (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=hostage · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP