Will Donald Trump say “Taiwan”?

As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Taiwan” at 5 of 27 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 8, 2024 (19%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 31% (n=27, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.

31%from settlement history only · n=27Next: Monthly window, Oct 31, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no no no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

Taiwan

Probability
31% · n=27
Settled
5/27 (19%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Georgia? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Florida? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his roundtable? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? · not listed

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What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 30 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 7, 2026TaiwanKalshiYes–
Oct 6, 2026TaiwanKalshiYes–
Sep 30, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo–
Sep 24, 2026TaiwanPolymarketNo–
Sep 24, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo–
Sep 24, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo–
Sep 22, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo0
Sep 11, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo–
Aug 7, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo0
Jul 16, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo0
Jun 17, 2026TaiwanKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 15, 2026TaiwanPolymarketYes–
May 15, 2026TaiwanKalshiYes–
May 14, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo–
May 14, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo–
May 14, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo–
May 12, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo–
Mar 19, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo–
Mar 19, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo–
Feb 24, 2026TaiwanPolymarketNo–
Feb 24, 2026TaiwanKalshiNo–
Oct 30, 2025TaiwanKalshiNo–
Oct 29, 2025TaiwanPolymarketNo–
Oct 20, 2025TaiwanPolymarketYes–
Aug 19, 2025TaiwanKalshiNo–
Jul 22, 2025TaiwanKalshiNo–
Jun 10, 2025TaiwanPolymarketNo–
May 13, 2025TaiwanKalshiNo–
Apr 2, 2025TaiwanKalshiYes–
Dec 8, 2024TaiwanPolymarketNo–

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “Taiwan”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Taiwan” at 5 of 27 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 8, 2024 (19%), most recently on Oct 7, 2026.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “Taiwan” next time?
31%, from settlement history (n=27). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Taiwan’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/taiwan (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=taiwan · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP