Will Donald Trump say “Billion / Trillion”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Billion / Trillion” at 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 22, 2026 (50%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 3/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Billion / Trillion
- Probability
- 43% · n=6
- Settled
- 3/6 (50%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
42 counted; 5 by speakers the rule does not count.
…lovely community from Somalia, lovely country -- in Minneapolis, Minnesota, was stealing billions and billions of dollars, taxpayer money, through fraudulent childcare centers and other…
…of that money, and he knew nothing about it, all of the billions and billions of dollars that everybody was scamming, they all knew. That…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Billion / Trillion |  Kalshi | Yes | 42 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Billion / Trillion | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Billion / Trillion | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Billion / Trillion | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Billion / Trillion | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Billion / Trillion | Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Billion / Trillion”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Billion / Trillion” at 3 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 22, 2026 (50%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Billion / Trillion” next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Billion / Trillion’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/billion-or-trillion (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=billion%20%2F%20trillion · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP