Will Donald Trump say “Trade”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trade” at 7 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 1, 2025 (54%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Trade
- Probability
- 54% · n=13
- Settled
- 7/13 (54%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 2 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…cuz yours is going to go down. They gave us the worst trade deficit in American history. They allowed 25 million people to pour across…
…in American history, the highest energy prices in American history, the worst trade deficit in American history. They allowed 25 million people to pour across…
…the challenges that you have systemically tackled and solved, whether it's the trade deficit, where we were getting ripped off by foreign countries, whether it's…
…history. And by the way, this is two years ago, the worst trade deficit in American history. They allowed 25 million people to pour across…
It sounds like a trade deal with India is close. Can you go into that?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 13 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Trade |  Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Trade |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Trade | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Trade | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Trade | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Trade | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Trade | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Trade | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Trade | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 6, 2025 | Trade | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 5, 2025 | Trade | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 21, 2025 | Trade | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Trade | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Trade”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Trade” at 7 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 1, 2025 (54%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Trade” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Trade’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/trade (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=trade · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP