Will Donald Trump say “Gaza / Palestine”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Gaza / Palestine” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 17, 2025 (43%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 56% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 3/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Gaza / Palestine
- Probability
- 56% · n=7
- Settled
- 3/7 (43%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 1 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Gaza / Palestine |  Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Gaza / Palestine | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Palestine / Gaza |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Palestine / Gaza | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Palestine / Gaza | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 5, 2026 | Gaza / Palestine | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Palestine / Gaza | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Gaza / Palestine”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Gaza / Palestine” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 17, 2025 (43%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Gaza / Palestine” next time?
- 56%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Gaza / Palestine’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/gaza-or-palestine (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=gaza%20%2F%20palestine · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP