Will Donald Trump say “Abraham Accords”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Abraham Accords” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 19, 2025 (33%), most recently on Nov 18, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Abraham Accords
- Probability
- 32% · n=6
- Settled
- 2/6 (33%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 0 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Abraham Accords |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Abraham Accords |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Abraham Accords | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (6 of 8 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jan 23, 2026 | Abraham Accord | Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Abraham Accords | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Abraham Accords | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Abraham Accords | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Abraham Accords”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Abraham Accords” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 19, 2025 (33%), most recently on Nov 18, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Abraham Accords” next time?
- 32%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Abraham Accords’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/abraham-accord (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=abraham%20accord · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP