Will Donald Trump say “Argentina”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Argentina” at 3 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 10, 2025 (33%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 93¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Argentina
- Probability
- 53% · n=9
- Settled
- 3/9 (33%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Argentina |  Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| May 7, 2026 | Argentina | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Argentina | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Argentina | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Argentina | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Argentina | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 1, 2025 | Argentina | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Argentina | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Argentina | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 10, 2025 | Argentina | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Argentina”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Argentina” at 3 of 9 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 10, 2025 (33%), most recently on Sep 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Argentina” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Argentina’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/argentina (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=argentina · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP