Will Donald Trump say “Washington”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Washington” at 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 3, 2025 (80%), most recently on Jul 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 4/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Washington
- Probability
- 57% · n=5
- Settled
- 4/5 (80%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 4 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…So, it looks sharp. We And we did that whole thing with Washington. Washington DC went from a murderous, horrible place two years ago to…
…lowest level in 125 years since 1900. And when Ashley goes to Washington DC where Joanie has spent a lot of very prosperous years. Great…
…Henry, you got John Baraso, one of the most respected men in Washington, Senator Boy, that's a power group. You have Bernie Marino Furry, a…
…More importantly, when I arrived on January 20th of last year in Washington, D.C., it was riddled with crime. And now crime is down 87%…
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | Washington |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Washington | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Washington | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Washington | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jul 3, 2025 | Washington |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Washington”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Washington” at 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 3, 2025 (80%), most recently on Jul 13, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Washington” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Washington’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/washington (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=washington · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP