Donald Trump: Remarks, Aug 7, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during ceremony today?
Markets
8 words · 0 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | No | 57%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Joe / Biden 5+ times | No | 51%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Obliterated / Obliteration | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Knucklehead / Numbskull | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff 7+ times | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | No | 39%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Friend of mine | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 8%n=104 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-ceremony-today · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP