Donald Trump: Keynote, Jun 25, 2025
Polymarket What will Trump say during NATO Summit speech on June 25?
Markets
12 words · 7 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 62%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine 5+ times | Yes | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Israel 15+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear weapon | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Obliterated | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Intelligence | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bunker buster | Yes | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Elon | No | 47%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| NATO 15+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peace through strength | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Sanction | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Uranium | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-during-nato-summit-speech-on-june-25 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP